The Effect of Medicare’s Bundled Payments for Care Initiative on Patient Risk Factors Prior to Total Knee Arthroplasty

Medicare’s Bundled Payments for Care Initiative (BPCI) is a risk-sharing alternative payment model. There is a concern that BPCI providers may avoid operating on obese patients and active smokers to reduce costs. We sought to understand if increased focus on these patient factors has led to a change in patient demographics in Medicare-insured patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA).

We retrospectively reviewed all patients who underwent TKA at an academic orthopedic specialty hospital between 1/1/13 and 8/31/19. Surgical date, insurance provider, BMI, and smoking status were collected. Patients were categorized as a current, former, or never smoker. Patients were categorized as obese if their BMI was >30 kg/m², morbidly obese if their BMI was >40 kg/m², and super obese if their BMI was >50 kg/m².

In total, 10,979 patients with complete insurance information were analyzed. There was no statistically significant change in the proportion of Medicare patients who were active smokers (4.34% in 2013, 4.85% in 2019, Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.6092, P = .146). The proportion of Medicare patients with BMI >30 kg/m² increased over the study period (35.84% in 2013, 55.77% in 2019, Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.8505, P = .015). When looking at patients with BMI >40 kg/m² and >50 kg/m², there was no significant change.

Despite concern that reimbursement payments could alter access to care for patients with certain risk factors, this study did not find a noticeable difference in the representation of patients with obesity and smoking status undergoing TKA following the installation of BPCI.

III, retrospective observational analysis.