Orthopaedic Surgeon Workforce and Volume Assessment for Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United States: Preparing for an Epidemic
Richard Iorio, MD William J. Robb, MD William L. Healy, MD Daniel J. Berry, MD William J. Hozack, MD Richard F. Kyle, MD David G. Lewallen, MD Robert T. Trousdale, MD William A. Jiranek, MD Van P. Stamos, MD Brian S. Parsley, MDHip Knee
The demand for health-care services in general, and musculoskeletal care in particular, is expected to increase substantially in the United States because of the growth of the population, aging of the population, public expectations, economic growth, investment in health-care interventions, and improved diagnosis and treatment. The impact of an aging population is demonstrated by the fact that, in 2000, the eleven most costly medical conditions in the United States were far more prevalent among the elderly, and the population of elderly Americans is increasing. It is not clear that the future supply of physicians will be sufficient to meet the increasing demand for health care. The supply of American physicians is limited by the aging and retirement of current physicians, medical school graduation class size of allopathic medical doctors and osteopathic physicians, and United States immigration policies, which limit the number of physicians entering the country. Furthermore, among active physicians, the “effective physician supply” is limited by gender and generational differences, lifestyle choices, changing practice patterns, and variability in physician productivity. At current physician production levels, the ratio of physicians to population will peak between 2015 and 20201.
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